The stock market is at an all-time high. Tech startups with no
revenue have billion-dollar valuations. And engineers are demanding
Tesla sports cars just to show up at work.
Here's the evidence that we're in a new tech bubble, heading for a crash, just like the dot com bust of 1999.
Interest rates are effectively at 0%.
Before
we get into specific evidence that the tech sector is inflated, it's
worth restating the macro-economic context: Interest rates are basically
at zero and have been for some time. When borrowers are paying close to
zero interest on loans, that makes money cheap to get. This chart shows
the Fed's target rate for interest since 1970.
People with money generally have a choice: save it in
interest-paying, risk-free bank accounts or invest it in riskier assets
that may pay more money over time. When interest is at zero, virtually
any other kind of investment is likely to pay more because the risk-free
alternative is so lousy. So investment asset bubbles get created.
Stocks tend to go up.
The stock market is at a peak, which is exactly what you'd expect in a zero-interest environment.
(Yahoo Finance / Jim Edwards)
We've
had five years of solid growth in stocks. People who have invested in
stocks in the last five years now feel very, very rich. What could
possibly go wrong?
The market moves up and down, in cycles, as this chart of the S&P 500 stocks shows.
We're due for a downturn.
(BlackRock CEO Laurence
D. Fink, whose company manages $4.1 trillion in assets, agrees that the
Federal Reserve is creating “bubble-like markets.”)
In the tech sector specifically, there has been a recent run-up in deal prices.
This chart was
published by PriceWaterhouseCoopers, which tracks merger and acquisition activity in the tech sector.
It notes that "software deal volume tripled that of the second quarter."
The driving force?
High stock prices and corporate giants who are rich with cash and need to invest it, PwC says.
It's not just tech asset prices that are high. Salaries are high, too.
While unemployment generally may be high, in the tech sector it is very low.
(REUTERS/Edgar Su)
Tech
companies, led by Mark Zuckerberg at Facebook, are lobbying Congress to
relax immigration rules so they can hire more foreign talent because
they believe domestic talent has gotten too scarce and too expensive.
It's driving up wages bills like crazy.
Matt Allen, a tech recruiter at Vertical Move, told me recently:
We're experiencing first hand greater
insanity than the dot-com days when Interwoven Software was pulling out
BMW Z3's for engineers who joined. Instead, we're seeing sign-on bonuses
for individuals five-years out of school in the $60,000 range.
Candidates queuing-up six, eight or more offers and haggling over a few
thousand-dollar differences among the offers. Engineers accepting offers
and then fifteen minutes before they're supposed to start on a Monday,
emailing (not calling) to explain they found something better elsewhere.
That suggests that wages in tech are in a bubble.
Want an example?
Twitter svp/technology Chris Fry got a $10 million pay packet. He only joined the company last year.
Twitter's Chris Fry comes with a high price.
Fry is paid more in annual compensation that Jack Dorsey, the chairman of Twitter's board and the founder of the company.
That's how much the price of wages has risen in the tech world. Fry is not a one-off event. Facebook's vp/engineering,
Mike Schroepfer, got $24.4 million in 2011, Reuters noted:
One start-up offered a coveted engineer a
year's lease on a Tesla sedan, which costs in the neighborhood of
$1,000 a month, said venture capitalist Venky Ganesan. He declined to
identify the company, which his firm has invested in.
It's not just wages that are expensive. Company valuations are rising too.
Supercell, the game company, just raised $1.5 billion
in new funding at a valuation of $3 billion. Supercell has real revenue
— $178 million in Q1 alone. But you've got to question the logic of the
people doing the deal: Investor Masayoshi Son, the founder of Softbank,
believes he has a "300-year vision" of the future.
Even the
CEO of Supercell thought he was joking when he first heard about it.
Companies with broken business models are highly valued.
(Jason / Goldberg / Facebook)
Fab CEO Jason Goldberg
Fab.com,
the design retailer, recently raised $165 million in new investment
this year, for a total of $336 million in all venture funding. It did so
despite
laying off 440 employees
after deciding that the flash sales model — in which customers are
asked to suddenly purchase a daily deal — doesn't work. It was Fab's
second business model "pivot" — the company started life as a gay
community site.
We're not saying Fab is going out of business. We're saying that Fab's backers have been fabulously generous.
Companies without meaningful revenue are highly valued.
Pinterest just raised $225 million
in new investment funding, a stake that values the company at $3.8
billion. That valuation is fictional, of course. It's based on the
notion that the company could be sold or go public at that price. That
price is 10 times what investors have actually plowed into the company.
To be clear, Pinterest is showing every sign of turning into a great
company. It has already solidified a role for itself as a key referrer
of online retail and e-commerce traffic.
But still, this is a company that currently is
rumored to make only between $9 million and $45 million in revenue.
Companies with no revenue at all are highly valued.
Snapchat is rumored to be raising a new round of funding that values the company at $3.6 billion on paper.
This company has zero revenues.
Zero.
And it's not easy to see how it might make money: It's defining product deletes itself after just a few seconds.
The last time we saw companies with no revenue receiving high
valuations from investors was right before the 1999/2000 dot com crash.
Yahoo is again paying top dollar for companies with no meaningful revenue, just like it did in 1999.
(Wikimedia, CC)
Tumblr's David Karp and Yahoo's Marissa Mayer
Yahoo
recently paid $1.1 billion to acquire Tumblr, the social blog network.
Tumblr's revenues are so small Yahoo isn't required to mention them in
its financial statements — they just don't move the needle.
Again, to be clear,
Tumblr is actually an excellent product with 50 million users. But for Yahoo to make money on this deal Tumblr will have to generate profits after sales of greater than $1.1 billion.
My sources tell me that with the right adtech, Tumblr could generate
several hundred million in ad sales revenue over the years. But they
don't believe Yahoo will ever get its money back on the deal.
This is significant because Yahoo does not have a good track record
when it comes to buying in a bubble. In 1999, right before the last tech
crash, it bought
Broadcast.com
for $5.9 billion in stock and GeoCities for $3.57 billion. Neither
business had meaningful revenue and both have since been shuttered.
Companies are making dumb decisions: This startup chose beef jerky over a 401 (k) plan.
The
New Yorker recently wrote:
Hunter Walk, an entrepreneur who recently
co-founded an early-phase venture firm called Homebrew, told me about a
startup where he’d previously worked. The company had needed to figure
out whether to spend its limited budget on beef jerky to keep around the
office or 401k plans for the staff. “We put it to a vote: ‘Do you want a
401k or jerky?’ ” he explained. “The vote was unanimously for jerky.
The thought was that well-fed developers could create value better than
the stock market.”
Correction: Walk now tells me that the beef jerky incident
happened in 2001. The New Yorker presents the anecdote as if it were
current. Nonetheless, there are plenty of companies making dumb
decisions. For instance ...
Companies are making dumb decisions (part 2): There are more Facebook ad agencies than regular ad agencies.
Facebook has about 300 so-called Preferred Marketing Developers. They
all do one of just four things: Place ads on Facebook, manage Facebook
pages for companies, provide social media analytics, and create
marketing apps for Facebook. They are basically ad agencies, in the
sense that advertising clients hire them to promote their brands via
Facebook.
But there are more Facebook PMDs than there are major ad agencies in
the U.S., even though the non-Facebook ad business is many times the
size of Facebook.
Not all of these companies will survive, and a few have recently realized that there is
not enough money to support them all. Even
Facebook has moved to cull the herd.
Serious investors are beginning to suspect a tech bubble has formed, and that a crash is coming.
Art
Cashin, the the director of floor operations for UBS Financial
Services, has been around the block. He recently worried that he he was
seeing things that
reminded him of 1999:
"I do worry a little bit that we're
beginning to hear things that are reminiscent of the 1999-2000
period—the number of hits, the number of eyeballs," said Cashin, ...
"I think if we hold to the old
tried-and-true—how many dollars are coming in—then we might be better
served," Cashin said. " But people are extrapolating, in some way, in a
manner similar to the way they did in 1999-2000."
"For an old fogy like me," the trend of
extrapolating future earnings based on users and viewers "gets the
warning flags flying," Cashin said.
Andreessen Horowitz is pulling up the ladder.
Andreessen Horowitz is is the
sine qua non of Silicon Valley investor groups. It had stakes in Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest,
Groupon and Zynga. Now it is saying it will
no longer invest in early stage consumer-oriented startups.
They're done.
Andreessen is interested more in later stage and
business-to-business-oriented companies. Companies with actual prospects
of real revenue, in other words.
This, arguably, is the kind of "flight to quality" you often see when
asset prices and stocks start falling. What does Andreessen know that
we don't?
One of the most legendary tech investors, Tim Draper, thinks we're at the end of the curve.
Timothy Draper is the founder of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, a venture
capital outfit that has invested in dozens of tech startups. He's been
around since the days when Hotmail was the big new thing. He recently
told The New Yorker that he believed
tech venture capital may have reached the top of its cycle:
“I’ll draw you the cycle,” he said,
taking my notepad and pen. He scrawled a large zigzag across the page.
“This is a weird shark’s tooth that I kind of came up with. We’ll call
it the Emotional Market of Venture Capital, or the Draper Wave.” He
labeled all the valleys of the zigzag with the approximate years of low
markets and recessions: 1957, 1968, 1974, 1983, and on. The lower teeth
he labeled alternately “PE,” for private equity, and “VC,” for venture
capital. Draper’s theory is that venture booms always follow
private-equity crashes. “After a recession, people lose their jobs, and
start thinking, Well, I can do better than they did. Why don’t I start a
company? So then they start companies, and interesting things start
happening, and then there’s a boom.” Eventually, though, venture
capitalists get “sloppy”—they assume that anything they touch will turn
to gold—and the venture market crashes. Then private-equity people
streamline the system, and the cycle starts again. Right now, Draper
suggested, we’re on a venture-market upswing. He circled the last zigzag
on his diagram: the line rose and then abruptly ended.
"Abruptly ended"?
Let's hope he's wrong.